How do we prepare for Black Swan Events?

We love predictions – until the unexpected happens. How can we prepare for it?

Whether it's the weather, stock prices, or customer behavior, early prediction models often look very promising. Until… yes, until something completely unexpected occurs. Such events are often referred to as “Black Swan Events.”

But how can we prepare for the unexpected?

→ By not optimizing our models for a single scenario, but instead actively exploring different boundary conditions. In “exploratory modeling,” we represent altered initial states and environmental conditions as scenarios and simulate them. This allows us to assess possible courses of action not only for the expected normal case but also for extreme situations.

This is also how we proceed in our current BMBF-funded research project InnoTwin, in which we investigate how we can address the shortage of skilled workers or finance our healthcare system in the future. To do this, we use the simulation framework developed by kaleidemoskop GmbH to simulate the relevant research questions at the DBU within a digital twin of our society.

• Image source: Lorne Douglas, Wikimedia Commons, Black_Swan,_Styx_Mill_Reserve.jpg, CC-BY-SA