Marcel Hebing

“If you cross the Halys, you will destroy a great empire.” With this certainty, Croesus, the legendarily wealthy king of Lydia, set out to wage war against Persia in the 6th century BC. He had consulted the priestess of the Oracle of Delphi, the most powerful forecasting institution of the …

How do we prepare for Black Swan Events?

We love predictions – until the unexpected happens. How can we prepare for it?

Whether it's the weather, stock prices, or customer behavior, early prediction models often look very promising. Until… yes, until something completely unexpected occurs. Such events are often referred to …